The off-season of the heavy truck market in 2018 is not as high as the same period last year, but a scene of depression.

cvworld.cn recently learned that this August, China's heavy truck market had a cumulative sales of 72,000 units, a 4% decrease from the previous month and a 23% decrease from the 93,700 units in the same period last year. This is the third decline this year, and it is also the month with the biggest monthly sales decline so far this year. In addition to August, the other two declines were February and July, with sales falling 13% and 17% respectively.



Why didn't the heavy truck market "reverse" in August? What are the market trends and trends in September and the fourth quarter? Please see the analysis report of the first commercial vehicle network.

Accelerated decline, heavy truck market sales fell to 72,000 in August

If you briefly summarize the recent trend of the heavy truck market, you can say that "peak season stops in July and the market shrinks in August".

This year, the monthly sales record of the heavy truck market has been renewed five times, namely January, March, April, May, and June. In March, it also created a historical high of 138,900 vehicles in the heavy truck market. However, the off-season came all in a sudden, and the market turning point came so fast, it exceeds people's expectations. In June, sales of heavy trucks also increased by 15% year-on-year. In July, sales of heavy trucks fell by 33% quarter-on-quarter and 17% year-on-year. In August, the heavy truck market fell to the bottom, only about 72,000 units sold.

The analysis of cvworld.cn believes that there are three reasons for the accelerated decline in the heavy truck market in August. Firstly, the demand for heavy trucks has rapidly declined with the arrival of hot and rainy seasons. Demand in August has been sluggish. Both tractors and construction vehicles are in a downturn; secondly, heavy trucks are in high inventory, for the second half. Dealers and the market brought some pressure. Heavy truck manufacturers and dealers used the traditional off-season to “digest” the inventory and prepare for the “Golden September and Silver October”. Thirdly, the tractor market was overdrawn by the implementation of the New Deal in the past year. The adverse effects of the low road freight rate have not yet improved, and the demand for new cars has been continuously suppressed.

Orders in September have not recovered significantly.

According to the statistics of cvworld.cn, the market sales in August was 72,000 units. From January to August, the cumulative sales of China's heavy truck market was 814,400 units, an increase of 7% year-on-year. The cumulative increase is narrowing month by month - January-June The heavy truck market increased by 15.11% year-on-year. The heavy truck sales in January-July increased by 10.56% year-on-year, narrowing by nearly 4 percentage points. From January to August, it continued to narrow to 7%, a decrease of nearly 4 percentage points.

 

Judging from the competitive landscape, although many major events occurred from July to September, such as the official release of the National Sixth Emission Regulations, the performance of the car carrier sales did not meet expectations, more and more cities eliminated the update of cars that follow National III emission standard, and issued documents to be implemented in advance. National Sixth Emission Regulations and Chairman of Shandong Heavy Industry Tan Xuguang also served as Chairman and Party Secretary of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, but the overall market structure has not changed much.

The first place was Faw Jiefang Automotive Company. It sold 155,000 heavy trucks in August. In the first eight months, it sold 193,900 units, an increase of 11% year-on-year and a market share of 23.7%. This year, the cumulative sales volume continued to rank first in the industry. The second place was Dongfeng Trucks, it sold 14,000 vehicles in August, with a cumulative sales of 148,200 vehicles from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 4% and a market share of 18.1%.



China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd sold about 12,300 heavy trucks in August. From January to August, it sold a total of 135,600 heavy trucks, an increase of 3% year-on-year and a market share of 16.6%.

Shanxi Automobile Group Co., Ltd sold about 10,500 heavy trucks in August. From January to August this year, it sold a total of 120,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a market share of 14.7%. It continued to rank among the top four in the industry. In August, Foton Motor Group sold 7,500 heavy trucks, with a cumulative sales of 79,100 vehicles from January to August, an increase of 5% year-on-year and a market share of 9.7%.



From March of this year, Saic-Iveco Hongyan Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd, which ranked sixth in the industry, sold about 3,600 heavy trucks in August, up 2% year-on-year, and continued to maintain the top six status of the industry. From January to August this year, Saic-Iveco Hongyan accumulated sales of heavy-duty trucks of 43,700. Vehicles, up 62% year-on-year, with a market share of 5.3%. The seventh JAC sold about 2,200 vehicles in August. In the first eight months of this year, it sold 31,500 heavy trucks, with a market share of 3.8%.

The 8th Dayun Motor accumulated sales of 20,168 vehicles from January to August, up 2% year-on-year, with a market share of 2.5%; CAMC Heavy Trucks sold 1,376 vehicles in August, and accumulated sales of 13,762 vehicles from January to August, up 10% year-on-year. The market share is 1.7%. XCMG Heavy Trucks sold 1,106 vehicles in August, up 26% year-on-year, and continued to stabilize the top ten in the industry; its cumulative sales from January to August totaled 11,443 units, up 34% year-on-year, with an industry share of 1.4%.



Heavy truck sales in August fell 23% year-on-year, and market demand has basically fallen to the bottom. cvworld.cn learned that since September, the terminal market demand has gradually “crawled out” and has recovered. Orders of various enterprises have rebounded, but the trend of obvious recovery has not yet appeared. The traditional “Golden September”has not yet come. Whether Golden September will come or not will determine the final trend and development trend of the heavy truck market in the fourth quarter. After all, with the arrival of the fourth-quarter environmental protection production limit season, the heavy truck market will face another big test.